Circana: 29% of US console and PC gamers plan to buy GTA 6; Sensor Tower estimates pre-orders 148% ahead of Modern Warfare 2

Circana, the market research firm, said on October 28, 2026 that 29% of US console and PC gamers currently plan to buy Grand Theft Auto VI. It calls that the highest purchase intent it has recorded for a video game, which makes GTA 6 the most anticipated release in its tracking history. Separately, an analysis from Sensor Tower, reported by GamesIndustry.biz, estimates that US digital pre-orders are far ahead of recent big releases. Both sets of numbers come from outside firms. Rockstar and Take-Two have not published pre-order figures.

Circana says the 29% comes from its PlayerPulse tracker. Its press release gives no sample size, survey dates or question wording, so we cannot judge how firm the number is. It is also intent, not sales: it measures what people say they plan to do. The survey covers PC gamers too, though Rockstar has announced GTA 6 only for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S.

Mat Piscatella, Circana’s video games industry analyst, called the game "a rare cultural and commercial moment" for the industry. He said players have waited 13 years for a sequel to GTA 5, and that he expects demand to reach consoles, accessories and gaming subscriptions as well as software. In his view, many people who have not yet upgraded to a current-generation console may buy a PlayStation 5 or Xbox Series specifically to play it. He expects the game to drive software and hardware sales through the fourth quarter as retailers prepare for Black Friday. That is Circana’s forecast, not a result.

Circana also put the demand in context. It says GTA 5 is the best-selling premium video game in its US tracked history by both units and dollars, stayed in the top 20 best sellers in the US for 13 straight years from 2013 to 2025, and ranked third in total active users across PlayStation and Xbox in 2025.

The Sensor Tower numbers were reported by GamesIndustry.biz on October 20. Sensor Tower compared GTA 6’s pre-order trajectory with Modern Warfare 2 (2022), Diablo 4, Hogwarts Legacy and Marvel’s Spider-Man 2, and says GTA 6 is 148% ahead of Modern Warfare 2 at the same point before launch. The comparison covers digital pre-orders in the United States only, not boxed copies.

As of October 13, Sensor Tower estimates GTA 6 had been pre-ordered 6.08 million times, worth an estimated $594 million. It puts 74% of those on PlayStation and 26% on Xbox, and says the vast majority are for the $100 Ultimate Edition. Those are estimates from a third party, not Take-Two data. For comparison, its estimate in August was about 4.3 million pre-orders, which our earlier story covers.

Take-Two has said pre-orders are strong, but it has not given numbers. GamesIndustry.biz notes that analysts it surveyed earlier this year predicted first-year sales of 30 million to more than 50 million units, and those remain forecasts.

GTA 6 launches on November 19, 2026 on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S.