Piper Sandler estimates 46 million GTA 6 day-one sales from Reddit traffic, GamesRadar+ reports

GamesRadar+ reported on June 17, 2026, via Wccftech, that investment bank Piper Sandler expected GTA 6 to sell around 46 million copies on its first day. This is an analyst estimate, not a figure from Take-Two or Rockstar, and neither company had given a sales forecast of this kind.

As GamesRadar+ described it, the bank looked at weekly visitors to the GTA 6 subreddit. It put the number at that point at about 870,000 and assumed it would reach about 1.3 million at launch. It then applied multipliers taken from past game launches. A 35x multiplier on the launch figure, or a 53x median multiplier on the June figure, both land near 46 million.

GamesRadar+ also said Piper Sandler did not consider its subreddit growth assumption extreme, and that it would be conservative next to past average increases. The report includes a table of 18 other AAA releases from the previous eight years, among them Red Dead Redemption 2 and Cyberpunk 2077.

For scale, GamesRadar+ noted that GTA 5 sold 11.21 million copies on its launch day about 13 years earlier. It also passed on Wccftech's calculation that 46 million sales would mean more than $3 billion in revenue, and recalled an earlier analyst forecast of $3.2 billion in the game's first year.

The Piper Sandler note itself is not quoted directly, so the details above are as GamesRadar+ relays them. Subreddit traffic is an indirect signal, and the real figure will only be known if Take-Two chooses to publish one after the November 19 launch.