Analysts tell GamesRadar+ GTA 6 could sell 25 to 30 million copies on day one

Two analysts told GamesRadar+, in a report published on June 25, 2026, that GTA 6 could sell between 25 million and 30 million copies on its first day. These are outside estimates. Take-Two had given no sales forecast of that kind.

David Cole, founder and CEO of DFC Intelligence, said: "Our estimate for day one sales, mostly pre-orders, is 25 million." Serkan Toto, founder and CEO of Kantan Games, went higher: "30 million units should be possible." GamesRadar+ pointed out that GTA 5 sold 11 million copies on its first day in 2013.

The comments came a day after Rockstar revealed the $80 price. Cole told the site the price "was not a surprise", and that the bigger surprise was the physical version shipping without a disc. Toto said he had expected a price above the standard $70, and thought $100 would probably have been a bit much even for GTA 6.

The long run looked less certain to them. GTA 5 sold almost 230 million copies in the 13 years before its sequel, according to GamesRadar+. Cole said it "could be hard" for GTA 6 to match that: he expected it to be stronger at launch, but called its lifespan "an open question". He named the limited installed base of the consoles it launches on as the biggest issue, and expected sales to grow as it reaches new platforms and PC, as GTA 5's did.

Joost van Dreunen, a former CEO of SuperData Research who now teaches at NYU Stern, also expected lower long-term sales than GTA 5, arguing that the industry's growth after 2013 was unlikely to repeat. He still predicted 38 million copies sold, worth just over $3 billion, within 12 months of launch, and thought spending per player would be higher than for GTA 5.