Economist's projection puts GTA 6 launch-day sick days at $1 billion, IBTimes reports

On September 7, IBTimes UK reported that an economist projects about 1.5 million Americans could skip work when GTA 6 launches on November 19, costing the US roughly $1 billion in output for the day. IBTimes credited the estimate to José García Montalvo, who teaches economics at Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona, and said his figure is a projection from academia, not an official forecast.

The sum is simple. IBTimes said Montalvo takes about 1.5 million absences and an average yearly output of around $70,000 per US worker, which gives a short-term productivity dip of around 2%. The article said most of the missing workers would be men aged 18 to 30, and that the technology sector looks set to be hit hardest.

The article leans on precedent and anecdote. It said some reports found that as many as 6% of 18 to 35 year old workers in cities like Los Angeles and New York stayed home on the day GTA 5 came out in 2013. It also said a California parts retailer, Burger Motorsports, posted a notice that shipping and support would slow from November 19 because several staff booked time off, and that a software engineer, Bud Burruss, told The Wall Street Journal he intends to book a full five working days off.

Treat the headline number with care. The article does not explain where the 1.5 million figure comes from, and a plan to book time off is not the same as calling in sick. It also says the money would mostly shift, not vanish, since sales would go to Take-Two and Rockstar.

Rockstar had confirmed the release date, November 19 on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S. We found no comment from Rockstar or Take-Two on the projection, and nobody can know in advance how many people will actually take the day.